战雄电竞投注

Stocks have outperformed t-bills, t-bonds, and gold over the 5, 10, 30, 40, and 50 years ending 2018. Due to the great recession, stocks only underperformed gold in the prior 20-year period.

Period Ending 2018	Stocks	Gold	T-Bonds	T-Bills
5 Years	50%	7%	16%	5%
10 Years	239%	47%	22%	5%
20 Years	195%	339%	130%	43%
30 Years	1,589%	206%	502%	138%
40 Years	7,434%	517%	1,493%	462%
50 Years	10,263%	3,213%	2,446%	900%

Historical Prices of Stocks vs. Bonds vs. Gold

The returns of each asset class can be easily seen in the visualization below.

Which is better: Stocks, Bonds, or Gold?

Aren’t data visualizations great? We can see that if total returns are our goal, we should be holding equities over bonds and gold the majority of the time. For most investors, this includes investing in low-cost index funds as it’s challenging for most investors and traders to beat the market.

Are Bonds Less Risky Than Stocks?

You often hear that bonds are less risky than stocks in the media. If anyone ever tells you that, steer clear of their advice because they don’t know what they’re talking about:

You cannot talk about risk without considering the investment timeline.

Using history as a guide, a person with 100,000 and a 30-year horizon can invest in “less risky” bonds and compound their money to 602,000. If that same person invests in stocks, they will have $1,689,000. Whose retirement is in a less risky position?

The “bonds are less risky than stocks” mantra holds up when the timeline is shorter.

	Stocks	Bonds	T-Bills
Standard Deviation	18.0%	4.4%	2.6%
Largest Loss	-43%	-5%	0%
Positive Years	74%	92%	100%

Using historical data as a guide, investors should hold stocks over the long term and reduce portfolio volatility as they draw nearer to withdrawing their investments.

There are ways to improve total returns while lowering “risk” by  using leverage, combining assets, and targetting volatility . But for most retail investors, this is a bad idea.

Why Do Stocks Return More Than Bonds?

History shows that being an owner is more profitable than being a lender. Let’s think about why.

The first reason is due to risk. Debt holders always get paid before equity investors. Stockholders get what’s left after debts are satisfied. Remember the basic accounting equation:

Equity = Assets – Liabilities

Investors are well aware of this risk, and this is why there is an equity risk premium .

The second reason is due to asymmetrical payoffs. You can only earn as much as the coupon and interest payments when you own debt. The upside is capped. When you own a business or stock, there is no cap on the potential profits you may receive.

Gold, on the other hand, isn’t a productive asset. Investors generally hold gold protection against adverse currency movements and a hedge against inflation. It’s often  inversely correlated  with the stock market.

Historical Data for Stocks, Bonds & Gold

For those interested in running your analysis, please see the below data.

Price History

YEAR	STOCKS	T-BILLS	T-BONDS	GOLD
1929	131.88	106.34	105.07	99.81
1930	98.75	111.18	109.85	99.90
1931	55.46	113.74	107.03	82.54
1932	50.66	114.96	116.44	100.10
1933	75.99	116.06	118.60	127.38
1934	75.09	116.44	128.05	167.83
1935	110.18	116.64	133.78	168.55
1936	145.38	116.84	140.49	168.70
1937	94.00	117.19	142.43	168.31
1938	121.53	117.29	148.43	168.60
1939	120.20	117.33	154.98	166.52
1940	107.37	117.36	163.35	163.76
1941	93.66	117.46	160.04	163.76
1942	111.61	117.85	163.72	163.76
1943	139.59	118.30	167.79	163.76
1944	166.15	118.75	172.12	163.76
1945	225.67	119.20	178.67	167.92
1946	206.65	119.65	184.26	167.92
1947	217.39	120.33	185.95	167.92
1948	229.79	121.56	189.58	167.92
1949	271.85	122.90	198.42	153.31
1950	355.60	124.34	199.27	167.97
1951	439.80	126.18	198.68	167.97
1952	519.62	128.29	203.19	167.39
1953	513.35	130.72	211.61	168.55
1954	783.18	131.98	218.57	169.52
1955	1038.47	134.17	215.65	169.47
1956	1115.73	137.60	210.79	169.28
1957	999.05	142.04	225.11	169.09
1958	1435.84	144.57	220.39	169.81
1959	1608.95	149.27	214.56	169.81
1960	1614.37	153.82	239.53	170.63
1961	2044.40	157.30	244.46	170.54
1962	1864.26	161.67	258.38	170.44
1963	2285.80	166.70	262.74	169.76
1964	2661.02	172.54	272.53	169.81
1965	2990.97	179.28	274.49	169.91
1966	2692.74	187.95	282.47	169.96
1967	3333.69	196.10	278.01	169.09
1968	3694.23	206.41	287.11	187.18
1969	3389.77	219.96	272.71	198.79
1970	3510.49	234.66	318.41	181.13
1971	4009.72	245.32	349.57	210.35
1972	4761.76	255.01	359.42	309.19
1973	4080.44	272.16	372.57	516.30
1974	3023.54	293.33	379.98	889.45
1975	4142.10	310.90	393.68	673.92
1976	5129.20	326.35	456.61	647.70
1977	4771.20	343.09	462.50	776.25
1978	5081.77	366.87	458.90	1005.47
1979	6022.89	403.33	461.98	2201.64
1980	7934.26	448.58	448.17	2878.18
1981	7561.16	512.73	484.91	1983.99
1982	9105.08	569.18	644.04	2149.49
1983	11138.90	617.26	664.65	1883.70
1984	11823.51	676.60	755.92	1548.81
1985	15516.60	727.26	950.29	1552.06
1986	18386.33	771.15	1181.06	1892.74
1987	19455.08	815.27	1122.47	2352.73
1988	22672.40	867.86	1214.78	2024.63
1989	29808.58	938.24	1429.72	1980.60
1990	28895.11	1009.08	1518.87	1829.51
1991	37631.51	1065.69	1746.77	1746.78
1992	40451.51	1101.98	1910.30	1619.74
1993	44483.33	1134.84	2181.77	1854.62
1994	45073.14	1180.07	2006.43	1834.98
1995	61838.19	1245.15	2477.55	1874.41
1996	75863.69	1307.68	2512.94	1785.20
1997	100977.34	1373.76	2762.71	1396.90
1998	129592.25	1438.70	3174.95	1410.84
1999	156658.05	1503.58	2912.88	1366.09
2000	142508.98	1590.23	3398.03	1327.29
2001	125622.01	1648.63	3587.37	1337.69
2002	98027.82	1675.96	4129.65	1679.73
2003	125824.39	1693.22	4145.15	2013.79
2004	139341.42	1714.00	4331.30	2107.40
2005	146077.85	1765.59	4455.50	2481.86
2006	168884.34	1848.18	4542.87	3057.57
2007	178147.20	1933.98	5006.69	4033.62
2008	113030.22	1964.64	6013.10	4207.79
2009	142344.87	1967.29	5344.65	5261.25
2010	163441.94	1969.84	5796.96	6799.71
2011	166871.56	1970.44	6726.52	7406.87
2012	193388.43	1971.42	6926.40	8019.35
2013	255553.31	1972.72	6295.79	5816.64
2014	290115.42	1973.77	6972.34	5584.18
2015	294115.79	1977.91	7061.89	5133.04
2016	328742.28	1988.00	7110.65	5567.97
2017	399768.64	2015.63	7309.87	6301.40
2018	382850.00	2063.40	7308.65	6200.53

Return History

YEAR	STOCKS	T-BILLS	T-BONDS	GOLD
1930	-0.25	0.05	0.05	0.00
1931	-0.44	0.02	-0.03	-0.17
1932	-0.09	0.01	0.09	0.21
1933	0.50	0.01	0.02	0.27
1934	-0.01	0.00	0.08	0.32
1935	0.47	0.00	0.04	0.00
1936	0.32	0.00	0.05	0.00
1937	-0.35	0.00	0.01	-0.00
1938	0.29	0.00	0.04	0.00
1939	-0.01	0.00	0.04	-0.01
1940	-0.11	0.00	0.05	-0.02
1941	-0.13	0.00	-0.02	0.00
1942	0.19	0.00	0.02	0.00
1943	0.25	0.00	0.02	0.00
1944	0.19	0.00	0.03	0.00
1945	0.36	0.00	0.04	0.03
1946	-0.08	0.00	0.03	0.00
1947	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.00
1948	0.06	0.01	0.02	0.00
1949	0.18	0.01	0.05	-0.09
1950	0.31	0.01	0.00	0.10
1951	0.24	0.01	-0.00	0.00
1952	0.18	0.02	0.02	-0.00
1953	-0.01	0.02	0.04	0.01
1954	0.53	0.01	0.03	0.01
1955	0.33	0.02	-0.01	-0.00
1956	0.07	0.03	-0.02	-0.00
1957	-0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00
1958	0.44	0.02	-0.02	0.00
1959	0.12	0.03	-0.03	0.00
1960	0.00	0.03	0.12	0.00
1961	0.27	0.02	0.02	-0.00
1962	-0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00
1963	0.23	0.03	0.02	-0.00
1964	0.16	0.04	0.04	0.00
1965	0.12	0.04	0.01	0.00
1966	-0.10	0.05	0.03	0.00
1967	0.24	0.04	-0.02	-0.01
1968	0.11	0.05	0.03	0.11
1969	-0.08	0.07	-0.05	0.06
1970	0.04	0.07	0.17	-0.09
1971	0.14	0.05	0.10	0.16
1972	0.19	0.04	0.03	0.47
1973	-0.14	0.07	0.04	0.67
1974	-0.26	0.08	0.02	0.72
1975	0.37	0.06	0.04	-0.24
1976	0.24	0.05	0.16	-0.04
1977	-0.07	0.05	0.01	0.20
1978	0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.30
1979	0.19	0.10	0.01	1.19
1980	0.32	0.11	-0.03	0.31
1981	-0.05	0.14	0.08	-0.31
1982	0.20	0.11	0.33	0.08
1983	0.22	0.08	0.03	-0.12
1984	0.06	0.10	0.14	-0.18
1985	0.31	0.07	0.26	0.00
1986	0.18	0.06	0.24	0.22
1987	0.06	0.06	-0.05	0.24
1988	0.17	0.06	0.08	-0.14
1989	0.31	0.08	0.18	-0.02
1990	-0.03	0.08	0.06	-0.08
1991	0.30	0.06	0.15	-0.05
1992	0.07	0.03	0.09	-0.07
1993	0.10	0.03	0.14	0.15
1994	0.01	0.04	-0.08	-0.01
1995	0.37	0.06	0.23	0.02
1996	0.23	0.05	0.01	-0.05
1997	0.33	0.05	0.10	-0.22
1998	0.28	0.05	0.15	0.01
1999	0.21	0.05	-0.08	-0.03
2000	-0.09	0.06	0.17	-0.03
2001	-0.12	0.04	0.06	0.01
2002	-0.22	0.02	0.15	0.26
2003	0.28	0.01	0.00	0.20
2004	0.11	0.01	0.04	0.05
2005	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.18
2006	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.23
2007	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.32
2008	-0.37	0.02	0.20	0.04
2009	0.26	0.00	-0.11	0.25
2010	0.15	0.00	0.08	0.29
2011	0.02	0.00	0.16	0.09
2012	0.16	0.00	0.03	0.08
2013	0.32	0.00	-0.09	-0.27
2014	0.14	0.00	0.11	-0.04
2015	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.08
2016	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.08
2017	0.22	0.01	0.03	0.13
2018	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.02